Aviva Premiership Rugby Predictions ~ Final Standings

Regular readers of this blog know that I do regression analysis for Aviva Premiership Rugby.  It comes out of my RugbyMetrics analysis tool.  Much like MoneyBall, I mine statistics looking for new ratios and performance indicators.

I came up with a new index that takes into account a teams ability to score point versus its ability to defend.  It is an interesting analysis.  Based on performance thus far, I will go out on a limb, and barring any unforeseen circumstances, the following table shows how the teams should finish at the end of the season based solely on the numbers that they have put up:

Scoring Advantage Index	Team
1.438405797	Harlequins
1.034782609	Leicester
0.945652174	Exeter
0.795986622	Northampton
0.785507246	London
0.724637681	Bath
0.688405797	Gloucester
0.617391304	Saracens
0.585507246	Worcester
0.52173913	London Welsh
0.48447205	London Irish
0.194508009	Sale Sharks

This should be a fairly reliable predictor of how the teams will finish.  The numbers show that the Exeter Chiefs should make a big move from their current 8th position to third if they continue to play the way that they do.

A team with a higher scoring advantage index should beat any team with a lower one.

The scoring advantage index can be used as a coaching tool.  If a particular, play, setup, roster change etc creates a better Scoring Advantage Index, then that is a successful strategy.  The next course of action is to tie individual player performance to Scoring Advantage Index.